Observation and Experiment in the Natural and Social by Maria Carla Galavotti
By Maria Carla Galavotti
Remark & scan within the normal & Social Sciences . . Springer, 2003 .
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Example text
In general, an unbiased inference is one that applies the equiprobability principle to the alternatives corresponding to fully explicit models, which are the correct representation of the possibilities compatible with assertions. The following control problem should elicit an unbiased inference, because its mental models yield the same partition as its fully explicit models: The director at least is in the office and either the secretary or else the chauffeur is in the office, but the three of them are not all in the office.
On the other hand, as is shown in de Barros and Suppes (2000), the mean result of the Innsbruck experiment is not far from the classical regime. The distance is slightly less than two standard deviations from the classical boundary, so a more refined experiment, with mean results further from the boundary, would be desirable as a next step, and should be possible without any major technological changes in the experimental instruments. Ventura Hall, Stanford University Stanford, California REFERENCES de Barros, J.
C. ), Observation and Experiment in the Natural and Social Sciences, 43-55. © 2003 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. 44 PAOLO LEGRENZI Given a problem about a set of events, you can consider its partition, that is, the exhaustive set of possible conjunctions of individual events. In the problem about the director and the secretary, there are four such possibilities, which comprise this “partition” for the problem: Director in office Secretary in office Director in office ¬ Secretary in office ¬ Director in office Secretary in office ¬ Director in office ¬ Secretary in office Once you know the probabilities for each possibility in a partition, you know everything that is to be known from a probabilistic standpoint.