Radioactivity And Radioactive Substances: An Introduction To by James Chadwick, Ernest Rutherford
By James Chadwick, Ernest Rutherford
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Example text
Although leverage is a positive for earnings growth, it will not likely be the primary driver of earnings growth because leverage is already relatively high. Financial leverage will, however, offer a small contribution to additional earnings growth. Asset Turnover The fourth component of earnings growth, asset turnover, has been steadily declining over the past 30 years. This key earnings driver is at the start of a new upward trend. In fact, rising asset turnover will likely be the primary driver of the 7 percent earnings growth for the companies in the S&P 500 for the remainder of the earnings cycle.
With valuations stable in the years ahead, stocks are likely to track earnings growth of 7 percent, roughly half the pace of performance offered investors over the past 25 years. We will explore the changing nature of earnings growth, the key driver of stock market performance, in the next chapter. qxd 3/23/06 7:49 AM Page 21 CHAPTER 2 Earnings Growth O ver long periods, stock price performance correlates highly with earnings expectations—more so than with other variables, like interest rates. As highlighted in the prior chapter, changes in valuation do have a magnifying effect on stock market price performance, but the underlying driver of that performance remains the growth in profits.
Dividends are no guarantee of good corporate governance. However, unlike earnings, dividends cannot be later restated or written off. Therefore, they appear to reflect greater transparency and capital discipline. After record numbers of write-offs in 2002 that reflected wasted capital, investors may be ready to afford a higher share price to those companies offering a dividend. With the cost of borrowing likely to remain low relative to history, the benefit of retaining earnings to finance future growth rather than paying them out to shareholders is also low.