Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes, 14 by Patrick Humphreys

Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes, 14 by Patrick Humphreys

By Patrick Humphreys

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To the extent that these factors matter, the evaluation of risks needs t o take them into account. However, it seems that if one is willing to utilize an individual’s relative values for evaluating risks to themselves, the problem might appear differently. Observation 6. Concerning risks to oneself or loved ones, many individuals do not seem to differentiate between different causes of risk. L. Keeney Although I have not conducted any formal tests to support this observation, I have questioned a number of individuals t o lend some insight about its appropriateness.

It appears that risk assessments are commissioned wilhout any specification of what it is that is to be assessed. Operating in that vacuum, each risk assessment team sets out to characterize risk in whatever way it sees fit. Not only do risk assessments differ on what they are assessing, but also risk assessments of an identical physical plant, compared on the same measure, are often quite dissimilar. Compare, for example, estimates of estimated annual expected fatalities for the Oxnard facility.

U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG -0739. , Jr. and L. Slesin, 1976. Observations on the social impact of large accidents. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Technical Report No. 122. Howard, R. , 1979. Life and death decision analysis. 1n:Lawrence Symposium on Systems and Decision Sciences. North Hollywood, California: Western Periodicals. , 1974. The value of changes in the probability of death or injury. Journal of Political Economy, 99, 835-49.

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