The Eclipse of Keynesianism: The Political Economy of the by Robert Leeson (auth.)
By Robert Leeson (auth.)
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22 The Eclipse of Keynesianism unanalysed economic material, which we know to be nonhomogenous through time . . are not constant. There is no reason at all why they should not be different every year. . How are these coefficients arrived at? . One gets the impression that it is a process of fitting a linear equation through trial and error. 6 Tinbergen believed that he had tested for the constancy of his coefficients ( JMK, XIV [1938]: 286±7, 292). Keynes, however, was absolutely correct. ' Tinbergen (1969: 43) acknowledged that he and his fellow researchers found it safer `to ask industrialists for their investment programs rather than rely on an econometric explanation', and the econometric modelling of investment remains a notoriously unsuccessful area of applied econometrics.
In his assault on one of Keynes's (1936a: 95) central propositions regarding the stability of the consumption function, Friedman (1957: 86, 231) argued that Keynesians such as Lawrence Klein had presented, as supporting evidence, regression results `revealing a high degree of sophistication and ingenuity in statistical techniques and economic analysis', that were, nonetheless, `almost worthless . . an illusion attributable to the method of analysis . . ' Friedman's (1957: ix) book is notable also for the `almost complete absence of statistical tests of significance', but is widely regarded as `one of the masterpieces of modern econometrics' (Blaug, 1985: 63).
The `exaggerated claims' of `scientific magic' could not disguise the fact that `every attempt . . ' In particular, it was `a pure act of faith to assert that [Klein's] econometric model can predict the effect of policy changes, and there is no reason to share this faith until some evidence for it is presented' (Friedman, 1981: 30; 1975a, 176; 1948b, 140±1; 1951: 111). Robert Lucas (1976: 20) also found in Friedman's A Theory of the Consumption Function a forerunner of his critique of econometric policy evaluation.