Europe in an Age of Austerity by Vani K Borooah (auth.)
By Vani K Borooah (auth.)
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1% in 2010. 4%. The Housing Bubble 19 The reason for this asymmetric effect of the housing boom on the economies of these countries is found in supply-side responses. 4 shows that, in 2006, gross fixed residential capital formation was 14% of gross domestic product (GDP) in Ireland (up from 8% in 2000) and 9% of GDP in Spain (up from 6% in 2000). 7% in 2000). Consequently, the housing boom restructured the Irish and Spanish economies, in a way that it did not the UK and Danish economies, by diverting resources – skills and labour – from other sectors into construction which now, thanks to the buoyant demand for housing, offered higher wages compared to other parts of the economy.
In the UK, equity extraction to fund non-housing purchases amounted to roughly half of funds raised through mortgages in the five years since 2007. Although there is not comparable information for Ireland, 74% of those remortgaging their homes in Northern Ireland – representing the highest proportion in the UK – used the opportunity to withdraw equity. Remortgagers who extracted large amounts of equity from their homes may be in negative equity for reasons that have less to do with the fall in their house value and more to do with extravagance in non-housing expenditure.
This implies that (1 + i2t )2 = (1 + i1t )(1 + i1et + 1 ) and taking an approximation: i2t = 1 (i1t + i1et + 1 ) 2 That is, the two-year interest rate is the average of the current and the expected one-year interest rates. When short-term interest rates are expected to rise (i e1t+1 > i1t), the long-term rate will be greater than the short-term rate (i2t > i1t), which was the position on 31 May 2009. However, when short-term interest rates are expected to fall (i e1t+1 < i1t), the long-term rate will be less than the short-term rate (i2t < i1t), which was the position on 30 June 2007.