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14 This, in fact, may represent the fundamental decision for the United States in the early twenty-first century. As the sole superpower, or some say “hyperpower,” we are now confronting a historic crossroads concerning our role in the world. Adrift and unfocused until the first terrorist attacks in September , the “war on terrorism,” which surfaced doctrines of preemption and preventive wars, has become the catalyst for American action. As we are finding in Afghanistan and Iraq, however, preemption and “regime change”—or, stated more directly, government overthrow—inevitably require prevention of chaos and eventually prolonged nation-building in the aftermath of invasion.

Mass migration, from south to north, is now a major global social phenomenon altering the profile and complexion of northern societies. Energy production and distribution networks tie intricate webs of consumers  The Fourth Power with even more intricate webs of producers. In a word, the early twenty-first century is a period of revolutionary change, growing interdependence for some and rapid disintegration of old orders for others. America’s large purposes must be defined and, to the degree possible, achieved within this rapidly evolving context.

The subject of oil seems especially guaranteed to bring out the worst in us. 13 An open society, and particularly one that prides itself on its openness as a feature of democracy, finds it awkward if not impossible to conceal its true purposes. As a democracy, the United States considers openness—or transparency of purpose and methods—one of our principles. We proclaim it and espouse it. Yet we are naïve to believe that we can conStrategy in an Age of Revolution  duct ourselves differently, that is to say secretly, on the world stage.